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Grasso vs. Shevchenko 3: A Comprehensive Breakdown and Prediction for UFC 306

Grasso vs. Shevchenko 3
Black Belt Plus

As the MMA world eagerly anticipates the bout between Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 3 at UFC 306, the stage is set for what could be one of the most significant clashes in women's flyweight history.


Their rivalry has been nothing short of electrifying, with each fighter showcasing their skills and determination in their previous encounters. As we approach Noche UFC, let's delve into the buildup to this highly anticipated matchup, revisiting the key moments from their first two fights and analyzing what could unfold in this epic third encounter.



The First Battle: UFC 285 - Grasso's Stunning Upset

In March 2023, at UFC 285, Valentina Shevchenko, the reigning flyweight champion, faced off against Alexa Grasso in what many predicted to be another dominant performance by the "Bullet." Shevchenko had been the undisputed queen of the division, with a near-perfect record at flyweight and an aura of invincibility. However, Grasso had other plans.



Outcome: Grasso shocked the MMA world by submitting Shevchenko in the fourth round via a rear-naked choke, capturing the UFC Flyweight Championship.

High Points:

  1. Grasso's Crisp Boxing: From the opening bell, Grasso showcased her superior boxing skills, landing crisp combinations and disrupting Shevchenko's rhythm.

  2. Shevchenko's Wrestling: Despite Grasso's early success on the feet, Shevchenko utilized her wrestling to control the fight in the middle rounds, taking Grasso down multiple times.

  3. The Turning Point: In the fourth round, Shevchenko attempted a spinning back kick, which Grasso capitalized on by taking her back and locking in the fight-ending rear-naked choke.



The Rematch: UFC Fight Night 227 - A Controversial Draw

The second encounter between Grasso and Shevchenko took place in September 2023 at UFC Fight Night 227. This fight was seen as Shevchenko's opportunity to reclaim her title and avenge her loss. The bout was a closely contested affair, with both fighters having their moments.


Outcome: The fight ended in a controversial split draw, with Grasso retaining her title.



High Points:

  1. Shevchenko's Adjustments: Shevchenko came into the fight with a more cautious approach, using her footwork and range to keep Grasso at bay. She also incorporated more leg kicks to slow Grasso down.

  2. Grasso's Counterpunching: Grasso continued to display her boxing prowess, countering effectively and landing significant strikes, particularly in the later rounds.

  3. The Controversial Scorecard: The fight's decision was met with mixed reactions, as many believed Shevchenko had done enough to win. The draw set the stage for a highly anticipated trilogy bout.



The Build-Up to UFC 306 / Noche UFC

With the score still unsettled, the buildup to Grasso vs. Shevchenko 3 has been intense. Both fighters have been vocal about their desire to leave no doubt in the minds of the judges and the fans. Grasso, now the defending champion, aims to prove that her victory was no fluke, while Shevchenko is determined to reclaim her throne and restore her legacy.

Key Factors to Watch:

  1. Shevchenko's Strategy: Will Shevchenko stick to a more tactical approach, or will she look to make a statement by pushing the pace and seeking a finish?

  2. Grasso's Improvements: Grasso has been working diligently on her wrestling and ground game, areas that Shevchenko previously exploited. Her ability to neutralize Shevchenko's takedowns could be crucial.

  3. The Mental Game: With the pressure mounting, the mental aspect of the fight cannot be overlooked. Grasso's confidence is at an all-time high, while Shevchenko will need to channel her experience to avoid making critical mistakes.



Prediction: Who Takes the Trilogy?

As UFC 306 approaches, predicting the outcome of this fight is no easy task. Both fighters have shown they can adapt and evolve. However, the key to victory may lie in Grasso's ability to maintain her composure and execute her game plan under Shevchenko's relentless pressure. If she can continue to neutralize Shevchenko's wrestling and land significant strikes, she could very well retain her title. On the other hand, Shevchenko's experience and tactical adjustments could lead her to regain the championship in a closely fought battle.


Final prediction: A razor-thin decision win for Alexa Grasso, with the possibility of another controversial outcome not entirely out of the question. The fans are in for a treat, as this trilogy promises to deliver fireworks once again.



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